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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (No Huddle) 40-H.Luepke left end to DAL 45 for 6 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model