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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model