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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 84

Cleveland Browns 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 84 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.97 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 42, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model