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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.36 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP