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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model