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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to LV 3, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-T.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP