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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model