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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to LV 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 32-T.McAllister to LV 21 for 10 yards (57-I.McGuire).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model