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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 39

Washington Commanders 31 – Cincinnati Bengals 26

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CIN 30 for 9 yards (24-V.Bell).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model