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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(:56) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at 50 for 38 yards (3-M.Wishnowsky).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -1.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model