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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 16-J.Karty 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model