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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to SF 14, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing pushed ob at SF 23 for 9 yards (31-N.Hampton).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.42 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP