Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 11
Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 24
What Actually Happened
(7:58) 23-K.Williams right guard to SF 8 for 3 yards (7-C.Ward).
The Three Options
GO
+3.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
- 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
KICK
+1.58 EP
- 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
- 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
