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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to LA 16 for 2 yards (55-B.Fiske).

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.82 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model