Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(2:59) 43-M.Hayball punts 44 yards to PHI 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model