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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 42

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 4-J.Elliott 60 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model