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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 18

New Orleans Saints 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara left tackle to PHI 18 for no gain (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.92 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model