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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 10-B.Mann punt is BLOCKED by 48-J.Gray, Center-49-R.Lovato, RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at PHI 36. 31-J.Howden to PHI 27 for 9 yards (3-N.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.02 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model