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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(8:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at NO 40 for -6 yards (90-B.Bresee).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model