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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(8:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to NO 40 for 6 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.81 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model