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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 40

New York Giants 21 – Cleveland Browns 15

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.64 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP