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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to NYG 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.66 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model