Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 67

New York Giants 21 – Cleveland Browns 15

(10:01) 6-J.Gillan punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model