Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 90

New York Giants 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

(13:50) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to CLE 47, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche to NYG 49 for 4 yards (24-D.Belton, 35-A.Green).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.54 EP
63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 90, worth -5.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model