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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to NYG 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model