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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to NYG 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-31-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model