4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 54

New York Giants 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to CLE 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche to CLE 19 for 12 yards (82-D.Bellinger).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model