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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to NYG 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at NYG 18 for 3 yards (38-T.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model