Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 70

New York Giants 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

(12:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to CLE 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche ran ob at CLE 21 for 7 yards (88-B.Ford-Wheaton).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model