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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.10 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model