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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 57

New York Giants 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to CLE 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-J.Proche to CLE 18 for 12 yards (59-C.Kreiter, 89-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.19 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP