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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to PIT 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model