Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 93

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to LAC 46, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. PENALTY on LAC-33-D.Leonard, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 46.

The Three Options

GO -3.80 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.69 EP
71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model