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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model