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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:06) 9-C.Boswell 62 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model