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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 8-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to LAC 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.05 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model