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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 11-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model