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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 36

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -2.20 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model