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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 16-W.Reichard 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.26 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model