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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 60

Houston Texans 7 – Minnesota Vikings 31

What Actually Happened

(7:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to MIN 45 for 15 yards (22-H.Smith; 51-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.91 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.85 EP