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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.09 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP