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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 83-J.Nailor left end to HOU 24 for 3 yards (4-K.Lassiter).

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.38 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model