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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to HOU 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.29 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model