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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 53

Houston Texans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.43 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP