4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 17-R.Wright punts 43 yards to HOU 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-S.Sims ran ob at HOU 16 for 6 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model