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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 93

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 17-R.Wright punts 55 yards to HOU 38, Center-42-A.DePaola. 82-S.Sims ran ob at HOU 39 for 1 yard (20-Jy.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -3.59 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.33 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 51, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model