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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 5-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.07 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model