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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 45

Detroit Lions 20 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to ARI 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-51-B.Niemann.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP