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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(11:12) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.McBride (31-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model