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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 1-K.Murray right end to DET 23 for 1 yard (23-C.Davis). Detroit challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-K.Murray right end to DET 24 for no gain (23-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.55 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model